White Paper

 

This writeup explains the numbers and calculations used in the calculator. It will also teach you how to model situations that are more complex than the calculator can describe.

We know "white paper" might sound intimidating! Don't be too afraid. We have made it as readable as possible. It's possible to skim and skip around. It shows every step clearly. The goal of the document is to teach you how the model works.

(Or if overly detailed analyses are what you're here for, you can skip straight to the Research Sources section.)

You can read the white paper all in one page (good for searching or reading offline); select the page you want below; or just click "Next" above to proceed with the introduction.

  1. Introduction
  2. We measure the riskiness of interactions in “microCOVIDs”
  3. Understanding COVID transmission
  4. Computing microCOVIDs
  5. Activity Risk
  6. Person Risk
  7. The Basic Method of calculating Person Risk is the regional average
  8. The Advanced Method makes a list of the person’s recent behavior
  9. Comparing Person Risk methods with an example
  10. Putting it all together
  11. Calculator and Conclusion
  12. Q&A
  13. Research Sources
  14. Uncertainty Estimation
  15. Calculator Changelog