This calculator lets you estimate COVID risk and find effective safety measures for customizable situations. Examples: how risky is a trip to my grocery store? What's the safest way to see a friend? How much would it help to wear a better mask at my workplace?

We created the concept of the "microcovid" as a new quantitative unit for risk. One microCOVID is a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID.

An activity thatā€™s 20,000 microCOVIDs means that you have a 2% risk of getting COVID every time you do it. An activity thatā€™s 20 microCOVIDs (or 0.002%) is relatively safe, as you could do it every week for a year and still have only accumulated about a 0.1% chance of getting COVID.

You may decide that you're comfortable with taking on a certain amount of COVID risk. You can think about this amount of risk that you're willing to take on as a "risk budget".

For most healthy people who are not in contact with vulnerable groups, we think an annual risk budget of a 1% chance of catching COVID is reasonable - that's a budget of 10,000 microCOVIDs a year. In order to meet this budget, you'd need to stick to a maximum of about 200 microCOVIDs a week.

If you'd like to watch a video walkthrough of how to use the calculator, click here.

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Calculate approximate risk of contracting COVID

Step 1: Enter COVID rate

Currently there is no consistent reporting on COVID prevalence in the US. Please use the buttons or the sliders below to set a COVID level based on your impression of whether cases are low or high right now.

It may help to look at wastewater data: Choose an area new you, set the graph to "all time," and see how levels now compare to past highs and lows.

Reported prevalence: 0.00%
Adjusted prevalence: 0.00%

Prevalence Presets

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Characterize community infection first.
Fill in calculator to see risk level
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0.1% chance of COVID per year (20 microCOVIDs per week) Suggested if you or your close contacts are more vulnerable to COVID.
1% chance of COVID per year (200 microCOVIDs per week) Suggested for healthy people NOT in close contact with more vulnerable people.
3% chance of COVID per year (600 microCOVIDs per week). If you are healthy and prefer to live a riskier lifestyle AND everyone you live with / share air with is willing to do the same.
10% chance of COVID per year (2000 microCOVIDs per week) Use this if you can't avoid risk, but still want to make smart choices. Remember: if you get COVID, you may give it to anyone you come in contact with. Try taking the smallest risk you can to protect them.